← Home-run Mortal Ambition Season Regional - Hong Kong
Wind AlliesTier 2
at Home-run Mortal Ambition Season Regional - Hong Kong
decks
5
(5.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
30
14-15-1
overall winrate
48.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.8%
avg ELO -2.3 per match
expected value
52.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1336
· median 1342
· range 1139–1507
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
1064
Q1 1174
Q3 1342
1730
60% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
20% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 14.9% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 63.9% | +10.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.9% | 6 | 5-1-0 | 83.3% | 70.0% | 60.5% | +5.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 38.2% | -8.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 9.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.7 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 7.9% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 39.2% | -6.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 42.1% | -5.9 |
| Water Allies | 5.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.3% | +1.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.3% | -16.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.7 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia Jin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.7 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos Tonoris | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.0% | -17.6 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.7 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
